The pair did make a move higher yesterday above a prior swing high, and just fell short of the 95.40.
95.40-95.50 is a major resistance area. A break above indicates a swing higher. 96.00 and 96.40 are the targets (not necessarily today).
Support is at 94.90, 94.60 and 94.30. A sustained break back below of 94.60 would indicate short-term weakness.
Forex Analysis by Dr. Sivaraman at ForexPros. com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check Forexpros. com

The pair did make a move higher yesterday above a prior swing high, and just fell short of the 95.40.
95.40-95.50 is a major resistance area. A break above indicates a swing higher. 96.00 and 96.40 are the targets (not necessarily today).
Support is at 94.90, 94.60 and 94.30. A sustained break back below of 94.60 would indicate short-term weakness.
Forex Analysis by Dr. Sivaraman at ForexPros. com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check Forexpros. com

Crude futures had no problem participating in yesterday’s strong rally in U. S. equities. Crude finally left the psychological $65/bbl level behind on climbing volume, stepping over our 2nd tier downtrend line in the process. The futures are presently walking along our 3rd tier uptrend line as they creep back into the June trading range while setting its sights on the psychological $70/bbl level. Crude futures may have a little more gas in the tank even though the S&P futures are waning after negative earnings from AMZN, AXP, and MSFT.

The S&P futures made the confirmation we were looking for on Thursday, propelling from our 2nd tier uptrend line well beyond the psychological 950 level. The futures are leveling off today as investors take some profits amid disappointing earnings from the likes of MSFT, AXP, and AMZN. The markets have also received some disconcerting results from WFC and MS this, week along with fast food giant MCD.

Gold failed to participate in the S&P’s surge yesterday, opting to sink towards our 2nd tier uptrend line on climbing volume. Thursday’s movement in gold shows us the precious metal is more positively correlated with the Dollar than U. S. equities, aiding investors in further correlative deviations between the greenback and equities.

The S&P futures made the confirmation we were looking for on Thursday, propelling from our 2nd tier uptrend line well beyond the psychological 950 level. The futures are leveling off today as investors take some profits amid disappointing earnings from the likes of MSFT, AXP, and AMZN. The markets have also received some disconcerting results from WFC and MS this, week along with fast food giant MCD.

Japan’s trade balance came in below analyst expectations late Wednesday, yet surging U. S. equities trumped the disappointing data point as we anticipated. A recovery in U. S. corporate performance implies greater demand for Japanese exports in the future, weakening the Yen and improving prospects of a global economic recovery. Even though Japan’s trade balance was shy of expectations, we’re pretty encouraged by the swift recovery over the past two releases from recession lows. The data reveals export prospects are picking up as stimulus packages ultimately prop up demand for Japanese exports. Employment markets in the developed economies are improving along with consumption, bringing life back to the Japanese manufacturing sector.

The reports of heavy purchase of foreign currency by importers declined Indian Rupee for the first time in four days. The import oriented firms generally make payments in foreign currency to settle month-end payments, thus pushing dollar rates at the month's end.
India pays a huge sum as oil import bill and thus refiners are the largest buyers of US dollars for import bill payouts.
Ravindra Babu, a Mumbai-based foreign-exchange trader with Andhra Bank, said, "With importers' dollar demand strengthening ahead of the month's end, the rupee is expected to keep a weakening bias."

The EUR/USD has hit a wall and is consolidating with a downward slope after the Euro Zone’s industrial new orders data showed slight contraction while analysts were expecting a swing to growth (-0.2% vs. 1.9%). The Euro is also digesting the fact that French consumer spending came in higher than expected. However, we believe the EZ INO number is more prevalent since we’ve seen French CS flutter between growth and contraction. Hence, the EU continues to display a theme of disappointing data. Over the past week and a half investors have received discouraging data concerning EU economic sentiment, pricing, and now manufacturing. The economic data shows that although the peak of the crisis may be behind us, the economic return to growth could be a long, steep road.

The S&P futures are on the cusp of a large near-term breakout should they decide to topple our 2nd tier uptrend line, the psychological 950 level, and 2009 highs. However, the futures are shedding earlier gains in consolidation amid psychological hesitation. Regardless, the S&P’s correlations are taking the lead with gold and the EUR/USD busting out from our previous downtrend lines on aggressive movements to the upside. Meanwhile, the 30 Year T-Bond futures continue their slide lower from their near-term uptrend line. Hence, it appears investors are gaining more confidence in the economic recovery, willing to put more money into higher-risk investment vehicles.

The EUR/USD has hit a wall and is consolidating with a downward slope after the Euro Zone’s industrial new orders data showed slight contraction while analysts were expecting a swing to growth (-0.2% vs. 1.9%). The Euro is also digesting the fact that French consumer spending came in higher than expected. However, we believe the EZ INO number is more prevalent since we’ve seen French CS flutter between growth and contraction. Hence, the EU continues to display a theme of disappointing data. Over the past week and a half investors have received discouraging data concerning EU economic sentiment, pricing, and now manufacturing. The economic data shows that although the peak of the crisis may be behind us, the economic return to growth could be a long, steep road.

The EUR/USD has hit a wall and is consolidating with a downward slope after the Euro Zone’s industrial new orders data showed slight contraction while analysts were expecting a swing to growth (-0.2% vs. 1.9%). The Euro is also digesting the fact that French consumer spending came in higher than expected. However, we believe the EZ INO number is more prevalent since we’ve seen French CS flutter between growth and contraction. Hence, the EU continues to display a theme of disappointing data. Over the past week and a half investors have received discouraging data concerning EU economic sentiment, pricing, and now manufacturing. The economic data shows that although the peak of the crisis may be behind us, the economic return to growth could be a long, steep road.

The S&P futures are on the cusp of a large near-term breakout should they decide to topple our 2nd tier uptrend line, the psychological 950 level, and 2009 highs. However, the futures are shedding earlier gains in consolidation amid psychological hesitation. Regardless, the S&P’s correlations are taking the lead with gold and the EUR/USD busting out from our previous downtrend lines on aggressive movements to the upside. Meanwhile, the 30 Year T-Bond futures continue their slide lower from their near-term uptrend line. Hence, it appears investors are gaining more confidence in the economic recovery, willing to put more money into higher-risk investment vehicles.

The EUR/USD has hit a wall and is consolidating with a downward slope after the Euro Zone’s industrial new orders data showed slight contraction while analysts were expecting a swing to growth (-0.2% vs. 1.9%). The Euro is also digesting the fact that French consumer spending came in higher than expected. However, we believe the EZ INO number is more prevalent since we’ve seen French CS flutter between growth and contraction. Hence, the EU continues to display a theme of disappointing data. Over the past week and a half investors have received discouraging data concerning EU economic sentiment, pricing, and now manufacturing. The economic data shows that although the peak of the crisis may be behind us, the economic return to growth could be a long, steep road.

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The S&P futures are on the cusp of a large near-term breakout should they decide to topple our 2nd tier uptrend line, the psychological 950 level, and 2009 highs. However, the futures are shedding earlier gains in consolidation amid psychological hesitation. Regardless, the S&P’s correlations are taking the lead with gold and the EUR/USD busting out from our previous downtrend lines on aggressive movements to the upside. Meanwhile, the 30 Year T-Bond futures continue their slide lower from their near-term uptrend line. Hence, it appears investors are gaining more confidence in the economic recovery, willing to put more money into higher-risk investment vehicles.

The S&P futures are on the cusp of a large near-term breakout should they decide to topple our 2nd tier uptrend line, the psychological 950 level, and 2009 highs. However, the futures are shedding earlier gains in consolidation amid psychological hesitation. Regardless, the S&P’s correlations are taking the lead with gold and the EUR/USD busting out from our previous downtrend lines on aggressive movements to the upside. Meanwhile, the 30 Year T-Bond futures continue their slide lower from their near-term uptrend line. Hence, it appears investors are gaining more confidence in the economic recovery, willing to put more money into higher-risk investment vehicles.

USD/JPY The pair has retreated back into the middle of a range which has developed over the last week.
Minor support is at 93.75 followed by 93.50. A drop below this would shift the bias downwards. 93.20 is the support level beyond.
Minor resistance is likely at 94.20. 94.60 and 94.80 are more significant.
Forex Analysis by Dr. Sivaraman at ForexPros. com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check forexpros. com

We provide forex charts which help you to predict the direction a rate may change. Instead of trying to “see the future”, a forex forecast evaluates the past. That is to say that the analyst who is responsible for attempting to predict future currency moves analyzes what happened to an exchange rate previous days.

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The first half of 2009 closed with a quick change in direction for the greenback after the US consumer confidence numbers for June disappointed. The Conference Board’s monthly index fell to 49.3 versus an expected 55.3 and 54.9 the previous month, marching in tandem with the deterioration in the weekly ABC data series. This was enough to negate the brighter numbers from the Chicago PMI which beat forecasts with 39.9 versus 39.0 expected. The USD received a lift from a reduction in risk appetite while Wall St slumped, though all indices managed finish Q2 with strong gains, the S&P posting its biggest quarterly gain since Q4 1998.
The heavy data schedule at the start of the new month got off with a bang in Asia. Japan’s Tankan displayed mixed results with the current indices showing a worse than expected number but the outlook indices registering better numbers. However, there was more caution by Japanese firms with regard to capital expenditure and this lent a mildly negative air to the overall data. USDJPY firmed a tad immediately following the release with a subsequent, later, more-significant gain more attributed to Fitch’s downgrading of Toyota’s long-term foreign and local currency ratings from AA to A+ while Moody’s also expressed a negative outlook for Japan’s F&B sector.
The next data of note came from China where the Jun official PMI rose marginally to 53.2 from 53.1 prior, the fourth straight month it has been in expansionary territory above 50, but was slightly disappointing compared to expectations. The private CLSA reading showed a better improvement from 51.2 to 51.8. The major impact from the China data was seen in the AUD, as the Australian economy is seen as heavily reliant on Chinese growth. The AUD was already under a bit of pressure following a dire buildings approvals number in May, which fell off a cliff to -12.5% m/m from +5.1% in April, and overshadowed a more respectable retail sales number at +1.0% m/m from +0.5% previously. However, the AUD is still holding onto the 0.8000 handle at time of writing.Finally, if one wanted some positive data to preserve the “green shoots” hypothesis for the global economy one could look a South Korea’s trade numbers for June. While exports were down y/y, the fall was much lower than expected and the value of daily shipments rose for the fifth straight month. Bearing in mind that the US and China take about one-third of South Korea’s total exports, the data reinforces the positive factory output, capital investment and manufacturer’s confidence data seen earlier this week.
Aside from the data, market sentiment was driven by some extremely dovish comments from the Fed’s Janet Yellen. She was not optimistic that the US economy would bounce back to normal anytime soon and the jobless rate would likely deteriorate and it would take several years to return to full employment. She added that the risk was that inflation would stay to low, not too high, over the next few years. It was also possible that US rates would stay near zero for a couple of years, she added, noting that the Fed would not repeat the blunder of the 1930s in tightening policy too early and choking off the recovery. The most dovish, and possibly realistic, comments to data and are expected to be USD bearish near-term. The theory of green shoots will be challenged with data releases in coming days. First off today for the European session we have the slew of PMI data for Europe. Again regarded as a more forward-looking indicator, markets will need to see an extension of the improvement seen last month in order to preserve the momentum in risk appetite. Later, the US sees the private ADP employment report, the precursor to tomorrow’s early non-farm payroll release, and the ISM data for the manufacturing sector. Note Canada is away today.

Themes to watch – upcoming sessionGE Retail Sales (0600)Sweden Manufacturing PMI (0630)Sweden Riksbank Rate Announcement (0700)Denmark retail Sales (0730)Swiss Manufacturing PMI (0730)EU Manufacturing PMI (0800)UK Manufacturing PMI (0830)US ADP Hiring Report (1215)US ISM Manufacturing Index (1400)US Pending Home Sales (1400)US Construction Spending (1400)US Fed’s Evans speaks (1515)

Headlines – previous sessionUS Apr. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index out at -18.12% y/y vs. -18.63% expectedUS Jun Chicago PMI out at 39.9 vs. 39.0 expected and 34.9 priorUS Jun Consumer Confidence out at 49.3 vs. 55.3 expected and 54.9 priorAU AIG Jun Performance of Manufacturing out at 38.4 vs. 37.5 priorJP Q2 Tankan Lge manufacturers Index out at -48 vs. -43 expected and -58 priorJP Q2 Tankan Lge Manufacturers Outlook out at -30 vs. -34 expected and -51 priorJP Q2 Tankan Non-manufacturing out at -29 vs. -27 expected and -31 priorJP Q2 Tankan Non-manufacturing Outlook out at -21 vs. -23 expected and -30 priorAU May Retail Sales out at +1.0% m/m vs. +0.5% expected and +0.3% priorAU May Building Approvals out at -12.5% m/m vs. +3.3% expected and +5.1% priorChina Jun Manufacturing PMI out at 53.2 vs. 53.1 priorChina Jun CLSA Manufacturing PMI out at 51.8 vs. 51.2 prior